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Analysis: Early caseload doubling trend seems to have slowed

While it may be too early to make any concrete conclusions about the state of Louisiana’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there does appear to be some promising signs.

On March 20, the state had reported approximately 500 cases of COVID-19 (actual total was 537). This is the amount of time it took the number of cases to double since then:

  • Double to 1,000 cases — three days, March 23 (actual total was 1,172 cases).
  • Double to 2,000 cases — three days, March 26 (actual total was 2,305 cases).
  • Double to 4,000 cases — four days, March 30 (actual total was 4,025 cases).
  • Double to 8,000 cases — three days, April 2 (actual total was 9,150 cases).

In other words, it took approximately three to four days for the state’s total number of cases to double. However, recently that trend appears to be slowing:

  • Double to 16,000 cases — five days, April 7 (actual total was 16,284 cases).
  • Double to 32,000 cases — has not been achieved; it has been six days since April 7 and the state’s current total, as of Monday’s report, is 21,016 cases.

In addition, as of Monday, the state had seen four straight days where the total number of additional reported cases had gone down.

On Thursday, the state reported an additional 1,253 cases. On Friday, the state reported an additional 970 cases. On Saturday, the state reported an additional 761 cases. On Sunday, the state reported an additional 581 cases. And on Monday, the state reported an additional 421 cases. This is the lowest total in this category since March 30, when the state reported an additional 485 cases.

Obviously, it is possible that these statistics could fluctuate in the coming days, especially considering the Easter weekend and the fact that some citizens may not have practiced strict social distancing guidelines. The state’s Stay at Home order and social distancing and hygiene recommendations appear to be working, and we should continue to follow them until instructed to no longer do so.

Even so, it does seem that there are promising signs that the state’s battle against the COVID-19 pandemic is having good results.

The state updates its statistics every day at noon. You can view them by visiting online at ldh.la.gov/coronavirus.